Will "underpants" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

117 of 1897 launches in the last hour referenced "underpants" (57 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.02×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.47291040335454837,
      "momentum": -4.123635630725804,
      "diversity": -0.3153846153846154
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "underpants",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.001002004008016032,
    "share60": 0.0619072708113804,
    "total15": 498,
    "total60": 1897,
    "momentum": 0.016185562614590882,
    "diversity": 0.48717948717948717,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 117,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 57
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921352777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.998689212962963
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.007016771694723051,
  "totalAfter": 8217,
  "shareBefore": 0.00863468634686347,
  "totalBefore": 13550,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 117
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity