Will "persuasion" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 68% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
88 of 1897 launches in the last hour referenced "persuasion" (49 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 3.80×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.43018483530661594,
"momentum": 1.3359498834183547,
"diversity": -0.23181818181818187
},
"rawProbability": 0.6843901985927568
},
"features": {
"term": "persuasion",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.17735470941883769,
"share60": 0.04662802950474183,
"total15": 498,
"total60": 1897,
"momentum": 3.803607214428858,
"diversity": 0.5568181818181818,
"launches15": 88,
"launches60": 88,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 49
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 230,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9921352777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.998689212962963
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6843901985927568
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0107095046854083,
"shareRatio": 1.5122415473679034,
"totalAfter": 8217,
"shareBefore": 0.007084870848708487,
"totalBefore": 13550,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 88,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 96
}Predicted 68% that "persuasion" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.71% → 1.07% (+51%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "persuasion" (6H). momentum contributed +1.34 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
1e9f348baffb67508bedacdab3a832fbd608616a4781ef3c90856fee34d13599006dbb5df19ceadbf4ebf91abd9a0b0dee085ac54c588337d2664d08a3fd1572