Will "gainbro" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 25% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

13 of 1897 launches in the last hour referenced "gainbro" (5 distinct creators, rank #50). Last 15m momentum 0.42×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.14332671675411546,
      "momentum": -0.8612746939178648,
      "diversity": -0.4384615384615384
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.24796660321557848
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "gainbro",
    "rank60": 50,
    "share15": 0.003006012024048096,
    "share60": 0.007112750263435195,
    "total15": 498,
    "total60": 1897,
    "momentum": 0.42262302382542866,
    "diversity": 0.38461538461538464,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 13,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921352777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.998689212962963
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.24796660321557848
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007301935012778386,
  "shareRatio": 0.3514137299570316,
  "totalAfter": 8217,
  "shareBefore": 0.002214022140221402,
  "totalBefore": 13550,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 30
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity