Will "guild" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

48 of 1897 launches in the last hour referenced "guild" (33 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 3.80×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3392644647710686,
      "momentum": 1.3359498834183545,
      "diversity": -0.075
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6224845171813869
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "guild",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.09719438877755511,
    "share60": 0.025553213909378293,
    "total15": 498,
    "total60": 1897,
    "momentum": 3.8036072144288577,
    "diversity": 0.6875,
    "launches15": 48,
    "launches60": 48,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 33
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921352777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996723032407407
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6224845171813869
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00010652122968107543,
  "shareRatio": 0.11352811889625264,
  "totalAfter": 46939,
  "shareBefore": 0.0010218888593676553,
  "totalBefore": 48929,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 50
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity