Ledger / Prediction #551 · token · 1H

Will $stick still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 18m ago. X link, website. No hot term.

Made2026-10-10 04:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 04:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09583022773245922
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "HsFZoWniAFtMiJj1J8YZF7Ny2xJzPnX68x5k8NuHB1L1",
    "name": "stick",
    "symbol": "stick",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 18,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 5,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3285.906768311792,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 565,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.09583022773245922
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 05:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.009

Log loss0.101

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T04:35:03.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3063.187326175247,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3608.747535399642,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3285.906768311792,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6571.813536623584
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that $stick would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,063, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $stick (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb500052e7697ddbd5f8429a2d0d720209cc4a0209de27e705e551942d7390d47

Previous hash0a25cc23026a25c62e3335302636258fce44380082c87ff223debd1104a72342