Ledger / Prediction #558 · narrative · 6H

Will "guild" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 9% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

48 of 1795 launches in the last hour referenced "guild" (33 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

Made2026-10-10 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3392644647710686,
      "momentum": -3.0951088856840396,
      "diversity": -0.075
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09265909767229263
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "guild",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.0012224938875305623,
    "share60": 0.02700445434298441,
    "total15": 408,
    "total60": 1795,
    "momentum": 0.04527008292793588,
    "diversity": 0.6875,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 48,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 33
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 254,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968686111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994781018518518
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.09265909767229263
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 11:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.009

Log loss0.097

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00012309207287050715,
  "shareRatio": 0.049747184773988894,
  "totalAfter": 8124,
  "shareBefore": 0.0036730945821854912,
  "totalBefore": 13068,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 48
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 9% that "guild" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.37% → 0.01% (-97%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "guild" (6H). momentum contributed -3.10 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8e816c4f92e9f29a9df0e5c960dc3fca6a625e775fc927ce86e3fc67b4e275ea

Previous hash7bcc78ed762d87d609363bbd2bd774ee7448cffc0a6cd45122c63636b7d71fff