Ledger / Prediction #559 · narrative · 6H

Will "spacing" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

46 of 1795 launches in the last hour referenced "spacing" (32 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

Made2026-10-10 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3328805226082492,
      "momentum": -3.052997400333913,
      "diversity": -0.06521739130434785
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09537241298977482
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "spacing",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.0012224938875305623,
    "share60": 0.02589086859688196,
    "total15": 408,
    "total60": 1795,
    "momentum": 0.04721718326892236,
    "diversity": 0.6956521739130435,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 46,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 254,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968686111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994781018518518
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.09537241298977482
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 11:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.009

Log loss0.100

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00012309207287050715,
  "shareRatio": 0.051886848635235724,
  "totalAfter": 8124,
  "shareBefore": 0.003520048974594429,
  "totalBefore": 13068,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 46
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that "spacing" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.35% → 0.01% (-97%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "spacing" (6H). momentum contributed -3.05 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5b21292d4760e334c107ff8569f30a798f53136b4a8bca2a516a8fb33871aca3

Previous hash8e816c4f92e9f29a9df0e5c960dc3fca6a625e775fc927ce86e3fc67b4e275ea