GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #563 · narrative · 24H

Will "intelligence" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

36 of 1795 launches in the last hour referenced "intelligence" (31 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 2.47×.

Made2026-10-10 05:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 05:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 04:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2961121539033014,
      "momentum": 0.90271471837526,
      "diversity": 0.1333333333333334
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5905114545903817
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "intelligence",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.05012224938875306,
    "share60": 0.02032293986636971,
    "total15": 408,
    "total60": 1795,
    "momentum": 2.466289312389055,
    "diversity": 0.8611111111111112,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 36,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 254,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968686111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998695254629629
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5905114545903817
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 05:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.168
Log loss0.527
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.015456082889131506,
  "shareRatio": 1.9808758603701215,
  "totalAfter": 46713,
  "shareBefore": 0.007797866275755355,
  "totalBefore": 49116,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 722,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 383
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 59% that "intelligence" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.78% → 1.55% (+98%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "intelligence" (24H). momentum contributed +0.90 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc27009c8a8e2c7d271e2ceb2d3ea717440dd92a0cbf3d108aab3478a9ac178b5
Previous hash0dffcbf557ae487061723a2974f62159d8aceb8cf7b47dfa96ffdbd5e6a9c831