Ledger / Prediction #569 · narrative · 1H
Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
76 of 1528 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (50 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.25×.
Made2026-10-10 05:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 06:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 05:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4081943141778346,
"momentum": 0.2258738408410315,
"diversity": -0.11052631578947363
},
"rawProbability": 0.5556538960733713
},
"features": {
"term": "quantum",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.06271186440677966,
"share60": 0.0500327011118378,
"total15": 294,
"total60": 1528,
"momentum": 1.2534175252021713,
"diversity": 0.6578947368421053,
"launches15": 18,
"launches60": 76,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 50
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 222,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9930063888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9930063888888889
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5556538960733713
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 06:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.197
Log loss0.588
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.060498220640569395,
"shareRatio": 1.2225533769063182,
"totalAfter": 1124,
"shareBefore": 0.049511400651465795,
"totalBefore": 1535,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 68,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 76
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 56% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.95% → 6.05% (+22%). CORRECT.
— volume pointed the right way on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.41 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
661b585648655455281f3c261ca6c4e6e18972252e6573b30707d0d992cb9e52Previous hash
00a0467b3aeae0c74adf0d7129a657e9b3608c8790531725b83c69412b74c426