GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #569 · narrative · 1H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

76 of 1528 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (50 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.25×.

Made2026-10-10 05:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 06:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 05:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4081943141778346,
      "momentum": 0.2258738408410315,
      "diversity": -0.11052631578947363
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5556538960733713
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.06271186440677966,
    "share60": 0.0500327011118378,
    "total15": 294,
    "total60": 1528,
    "momentum": 1.2534175252021713,
    "diversity": 0.6578947368421053,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 76,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 50
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 222,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9930063888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9930063888888889
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5556538960733713
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 06:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.197
Log loss0.588
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.060498220640569395,
  "shareRatio": 1.2225533769063182,
  "totalAfter": 1124,
  "shareBefore": 0.049511400651465795,
  "totalBefore": 1535,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 68,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 76
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 56% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.95% → 6.05% (+22%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.41 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash661b585648655455281f3c261ca6c4e6e18972252e6573b30707d0d992cb9e52
Previous hash00a0467b3aeae0c74adf0d7129a657e9b3608c8790531725b83c69412b74c426