Will "persuasion" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 26% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

67 of 1528 launches in the last hour referenced "persuasion" (60 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.27×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3892882060435298,
      "momentum": -1.3139707797938736,
      "diversity": 0.17462686567164182
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.25921440348115143
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "persuasion",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.011864406779661017,
    "share60": 0.04414650098103336,
    "total15": 294,
    "total60": 1528,
    "momentum": 0.2687507846829881,
    "diversity": 0.8955223880597015,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 67,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 60
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 222,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9930063888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9930063888888889
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.25921440348115143
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.011565836298932384,
  "shareRatio": 0.2730666666666667,
  "totalAfter": 1124,
  "shareBefore": 0.04364820846905537,
  "totalBefore": 1535,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 13,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 67
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity