Ledger / Prediction #573 · narrative · 6H

Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

72 of 1528 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (8 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.61×.

Made2026-10-10 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 11:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40008423098729323,
      "momentum": 0.4753225969389878,
      "diversity": -0.7666666666666666
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.44426214679352555
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "money",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.07627118644067797,
    "share60": 0.047416612164813604,
    "total15": 294,
    "total60": 1528,
    "momentum": 1.6085330216247808,
    "diversity": 0.1111111111111111,
    "launches15": 22,
    "launches60": 72,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 222,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9930063888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988343981481481
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.44426214679352555
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 11:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.197

Log loss0.588

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.010248901903367497,
  "shareRatio": 0.26834338301910715,
  "totalAfter": 8196,
  "shareBefore": 0.03837936219039329,
  "totalBefore": 12637,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 84,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 485
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 44% that "money" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 3.84% → 1.02% (-73%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "money" (6H). diversity contributed -0.77 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9f763c9078f6059361cdd2e9c0937654c53720f83dff4e29062c79a12daa8e55

Previous hasha522863514fb566903fa60cb8dbc23089b2612409c0da42f411378bfac84475e