Ledger / Prediction #580 · narrative · 24H

Will "ambani" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

12 of 1528 launches in the last hour referenced "ambani" (10 distinct creators, rank #66). Last 15m momentum 0.21×.

Made2026-10-10 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.13132031060308497,
      "momentum": -1.5734819752789582,
      "diversity": 0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.27466512182547304
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ambani",
    "rank60": 66,
    "share15": 0.001694915254237288,
    "share60": 0.008175277959450621,
    "total15": 294,
    "total60": 1528,
    "momentum": 0.20732203389830509,
    "diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 12,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 222,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9930063888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997085995370371
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.27466512182547304
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.075

Log loss0.321

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0004283755997258396,
  "shareRatio": 0.2522399368021745,
  "totalAfter": 46688,
  "shareBefore": 0.0017305617199747541,
  "totalBefore": 49117,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 20,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 85
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 27% that "ambani" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.17% → 0.04% (-75%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "ambani" (24H). momentum contributed -1.57 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe570b3d95d9badee7596eac6f591e60f84a475c91081869fdc4db58dfbbe40c5

Previous hash1827f397d1d684961d0e9c14c578ef58b376956be5df94484db56d545ff62df6