Ledger / Prediction #582 · token · 6H

Will $HONEYSTAMP still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 22m ago. X link, website, Telegram. No hot term. Creator launched 20 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-10 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 11:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0.2,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.06633258836535354
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "6prKwpV7WBvDomSdfTF2p6QoQGdinWDRUHDhJ1xxtnEL",
    "name": "Honeystamp",
    "symbol": "HONEYSTAMP",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 22,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": true,
    "descriptionLength": 56,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3069.076771676932,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 20
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 460,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.06633258836535354
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 11:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.069

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T05:19:27.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3071.482375826751,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3071.482375826751,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3069.076771676932,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6138.153543353864
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that $HONEYSTAMP would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,071, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $HONEYSTAMP (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashfef6ff5a396a8eaf008fe19f878593994945a84b9d63309908c73408973541ff

Previous hash03bc0c81f37b48e335479b10b2a8f916853e9de2ca59cf6698aabfde1d731569