Ledger / Prediction #585 · narrative · 1H

Will "sib" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

59 of 1230 launches in the last hour referenced "sib" (12 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

Made2026-10-10 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 05:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3702149297207429,
      "momentum": -3.2947531487484416,
      "diversity": -0.6559322033898305
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sib",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.0017921146953405018,
    "share60": 0.04833468724614135,
    "total15": 278,
    "total60": 1230,
    "momentum": 0.03707719646998584,
    "diversity": 0.2033898305084746,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 59,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9977241666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9977241666666666
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 07:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0008183306055646482,
  "shareRatio": 0.02543683049671218,
  "totalAfter": 1222,
  "shareBefore": 0.047850770478507706,
  "totalBefore": 1233,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 59
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "sib" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.79% → 0.08% (-98%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "sib" (1H). momentum contributed -3.29 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha890493b55d584e6a9487349451b4972b7eed876ed2094ec4317de5cd4db6731

Previous hash427e6c031479f30860863126b770f3abcce7614ea0fa7f856c3054d93d21fb8a