Ledger / Prediction #586 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 31% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 1230 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (20 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.68×.

Made2026-10-10 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 05:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": -0.3919465128930302,
      "diversity": -0.4636363636363636
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.31090353406702564
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.03046594982078853,
    "share60": 0.04508529650690495,
    "total15": 278,
    "total60": 1230,
    "momentum": 0.6757402563854177,
    "diversity": 0.36363636363636365,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9977241666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9977241666666666
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.31090353406702564
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 07:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.097

Log loss0.372

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.024549918166939442,
  "shareRatio": 0.554492350076978,
  "totalAfter": 1222,
  "shareBefore": 0.04460665044606651,
  "totalBefore": 1233,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 30,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 55
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 31% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.46% → 2.45% (-45%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). diversity contributed -0.46 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash98b4be2ec0b349a499261b5178454a94e51118bb7d4b5351854ae6e9949019e7

Previous hasha890493b55d584e6a9487349451b4972b7eed876ed2094ec4317de5cd4db6731