GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #590 · narrative · 6H

Will "discovered" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

34 of 1230 launches in the last hour referenced "discovered" (34 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 1.34×.

Made2026-10-10 06:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 12:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 05:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28753839182730917,
      "momentum": 0.2947862774892515,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.578745890720128
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "discovered",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.03763440860215054,
    "share60": 0.028025995125913892,
    "total15": 278,
    "total60": 1230,
    "momentum": 1.3428393330216613,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 10,
    "launches60": 34,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 34
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9977241666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996206944444445
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.578745890720128
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 12:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.177
Log loss0.547
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.004830917874396135,
  "shareRatio": 1.5748617656299089,
  "totalAfter": 8487,
  "shareBefore": 0.0030634210962079815,
  "totalBefore": 12078,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 41,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 37
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 58% that "discovered" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.31% → 0.48% (+58%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "discovered" (6H). diversity contributed +0.30 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash02fbceb03c4b63dc334bc5b367e655d67f8e2a2f73f8134899fe4f1391915220
Previous hashe14b1ea8f1f3b2b3ad0d1b3aed9369871ec3129fa8a04553aae7907ce0485566