Ledger / Prediction #593 · narrative · 24H

Will "100x" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 1230 launches in the last hour referenced "100x" (6 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 1.44×.

Made2026-10-10 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 05:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": 0.36136660257081904,
      "diversity": -0.724390243902439
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.41977386665062205
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "100x",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.04838709677419355,
    "share60": 0.033712428919577576,
    "total15": 278,
    "total60": 1230,
    "momentum": 1.4352895452778858,
    "diversity": 0.14634146341463414,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9977241666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999051736111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.41977386665062205
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.337

Log loss0.868

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0030924756867428765,
  "shareRatio": 1.105687048134957,
  "totalAfter": 46888,
  "shareBefore": 0.0027963178413242707,
  "totalBefore": 48993,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 145,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 137
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 42% that "100x" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.28% → 0.31% (+11%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "100x" (24H). diversity contributed -0.72 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5e89d7161383dceafcf0a9dba201c2b5eafc8394d7ca99299277f29f848eeedb

Previous hashc4bcd4da65640f16d1a5eb19d4fd7b2bc3f1caaab08c1c889743f8e6ccdd3fb7