Will "signal" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 35% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1230 launches in the last hour referenced "signal" (3 distinct creators, rank #87). Last 15m momentum 0.78×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -0.2502307110250184,
      "diversity": -0.44999999999999996
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3509502070201231
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "signal",
    "rank60": 87,
    "share15": 0.005376344086021506,
    "share60": 0.006904955320877335,
    "total15": 278,
    "total60": 1230,
    "momentum": 0.7786211258697028,
    "diversity": 0.375,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9977241666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999051736111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3509502070201231
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007891144855826651,
  "shareRatio": 0.7608446057379471,
  "totalAfter": 46888,
  "shareBefore": 0.001040965035821444,
  "totalBefore": 48993,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 37,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 51
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity