Ledger / Prediction #599 · token · 1H

Will $DAPE still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 14% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 20m ago. X link, website, Telegram. No hot term.

Made2026-10-10 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 05:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0.2,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1365271476627242
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "HfgaFMXdz2hAqF1cyJgu1Aq37Kd8ajUufhZQhpVBQiFt",
    "name": "Doodle",
    "symbol": "DAPE",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 20,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": true,
    "descriptionLength": 110,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3091.9994274242836,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 372,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.1365271476627242
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 07:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.019

Log loss0.147

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T05:45:33.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3079.8700114897474,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4084.5723093075176,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3091.9994274242836,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6183.998854848567
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 14% that $DAPE would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,080, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $DAPE (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash22bc51950cb0edb58ddff59d5ab05a07e78cb5e62f19b70ac7e3505721358a12

Previous hashe245360efc9e43921a6852dcdecb37db563e467fc6829197027ab16305ccdb98