GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #608 · narrative · 6H

Will "intelligence" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1118 launches in the last hour referenced "intelligence" (5 distinct creators, rank #159). Last 15m momentum 1.16×.

Made2026-10-10 06:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 12:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 06:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.14875369200389982,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.503531837357993
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "intelligence",
    "rank60": 159,
    "share15": 0.005703422053231939,
    "share60": 0.004915102770330653,
    "total15": 262,
    "total60": 1118,
    "momentum": 1.1603871413757345,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 144,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9941033333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990172222222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.503531837357993
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 12:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.254
Log loss0.700
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.008798994400639927,
  "shareRatio": 0.9551887804584975,
  "totalAfter": 8751,
  "shareBefore": 0.009227822756159137,
  "totalBefore": 11487,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 77,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 106
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "intelligence" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.92% → 0.88% (-5%). PARTIAL.

— "intelligence" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0b4456b7c6e02065981620c182cc99f9beaf97403eef6782127547e4ad878a15
Previous hashcc77138b9de82845a9f37463c124b5df81cf533e8f66c48a5f677fbeb5eba693