Ledger / Prediction #610 · narrative · 24H

Will "read" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 16% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

28 of 1118 launches in the last hour referenced "read" (11 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.07×.

Made2026-10-10 06:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 06:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 06:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2584149896611655,
      "momentum": -2.5950145917003895,
      "diversity": -0.42857142857142855
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1567534075001824
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "read",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.0019011406844106464,
    "share60": 0.02546916890080429,
    "total15": 262,
    "total60": 1118,
    "momentum": 0.07464478687212328,
    "diversity": 0.39285714285714285,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 28,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 144,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9941033333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997543055555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1567534075001824
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 06:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.711

Log loss1.853

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.009057085149356861,
  "shareRatio": 1.2687526894749963,
  "totalAfter": 47035,
  "shareBefore": 0.0071367224244407185,
  "totalBefore": 48902,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 426,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 349
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 16% that "read" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.71% → 0.91% (+27%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "read" (24H). momentum contributed -2.60 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 84% and wrong on "read". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash919aac1ab1883ec282cdefbc74551a81089c0d468d682af1299f6c2b437d4439

Previous hash9436c9e8a0e3f27805bbd5518c5e6a3dd3ac941e659e2d47c561f7e570c80ce9