Will "launchpad" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

11 of 1118 launches in the last hour referenced "launchpad" (9 distinct creators, rank #43). Last 15m momentum 0.92×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.11826860405464054,
      "momentum": -0.07801962736088867,
      "diversity": 0.08181818181818187
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.440541075791314
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "launchpad",
    "rank60": 43,
    "share15": 0.009505703422053232,
    "share60": 0.010277033065236819,
    "total15": 262,
    "total60": 1118,
    "momentum": 0.9249462721110927,
    "diversity": 0.8181818181818182,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 11,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 144,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9941033333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997543055555556
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.440541075791314
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.007930264696502605,
  "shareRatio": 0.7184557556205694,
  "totalAfter": 47035,
  "shareBefore": 0.011042493149564434,
  "totalBefore": 48902,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 373,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 540
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity