Ledger / Prediction #616 · token · 6H

Will $WR still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 18% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 14m ago. X link, website, Telegram. Rides hot term "live".

Made2026-10-10 06:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 12:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 06:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0.2,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1758909041203891
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "GuRhwXop9Gd5BNCNyAtrkHiJAc3Kq7qcacRSLcJSpump",
    "name": "Wen Rug?",
    "symbol": "WR",
    "hotTerms": [
      "live"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 14,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": true,
    "descriptionLength": 60,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3275.0596439977617,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 390,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.1758909041203891
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 12:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.031

Log loss0.193

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T06:16:27.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3069.0236986484333,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3465.646375166719,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3275.0596439977617,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6550.119287995523
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 18% that $WR would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,069, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $WR (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1cbf3a2e9eeeb8486d49a08804bd991ec0ec2a376d379d5ee2343a42ad3a1bea

Previous hash24bc880f80848858e058bedf83a37c6b0c3396ba30bdc15ea44e7ad775cf4883