Ledger / Prediction #619 · narrative · 1H

Will "read" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 9% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

29 of 1219 launches in the last hour referenced "read" (12 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.16×.

Made2026-10-10 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 07:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.263678687632856,
      "momentum": -1.825562351798092,
      "diversity": -0.40344827586206894
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09403514316841481
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "read",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.003896103896103896,
    "share60": 0.02418032786885246,
    "total15": 384,
    "total60": 1219,
    "momentum": 0.1611270085846357,
    "diversity": 0.41379310344827586,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 29,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 168,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99882,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.99882
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.09403514316841481
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 08:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.009

Log loss0.099

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00590717299578059,
  "shareRatio": 0.2621688055563495,
  "totalAfter": 1185,
  "shareBefore": 0.023731587561374796,
  "totalBefore": 1222,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 29
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 9% that "read" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.37% → 0.59% (-75%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "read" (1H). momentum contributed -1.83 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6e27645aac1adc3944f40343d5dd70f31ddc97b31260a79bc88e16b0b45d11ce

Previous hash0acccbeb42c191f8feaddbabcdaa40192b6aa7163b063b0993976a4e3e6d065d