GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #621 · narrative · 6H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

30 of 1219 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (21 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.61×.

Made2026-10-10 07:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 07:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2687639203842082,
      "momentum": 0.47647614375135294,
      "diversity": -0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5447965709674033
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.04025974025974026,
    "share60": 0.025,
    "total15": 384,
    "total60": 1219,
    "momentum": 1.6103896103896103,
    "diversity": 0.7,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 30,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 21
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 168,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99882,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998033333333334
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5447965709674033
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 13:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.207
Log loss0.607
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.03431317760143065,
  "shareRatio": 1.2039448536795527,
  "totalAfter": 8947,
  "shareBefore": 0.028500505654132573,
  "totalBefore": 10877,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 307,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 310
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 54% that "uxento" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 2.85% → 3.43% (+20%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "uxento" (6H). momentum contributed +0.48 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash73bf2178f3e1c359179705d28b45f3710e63152cc9aeb33ecb6e6b001972a1cc
Previous hash99712354096ce9a685cf1630dca6177b9fe5343b70fb45807162ac77fa39376f