Ledger / Prediction #621 · narrative · 6H
Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
30 of 1219 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (21 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.61×.
Made2026-10-10 07:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 07:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.2687639203842082,
"momentum": 0.47647614375135294,
"diversity": -0.06000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.5447965709674033
},
"features": {
"term": "uxento",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.04025974025974026,
"share60": 0.025,
"total15": 384,
"total60": 1219,
"momentum": 1.6103896103896103,
"diversity": 0.7,
"launches15": 15,
"launches60": 30,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 21
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 168,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.99882,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998033333333334
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5447965709674033
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 13:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.207
Log loss0.607
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.03431317760143065,
"shareRatio": 1.2039448536795527,
"totalAfter": 8947,
"shareBefore": 0.028500505654132573,
"totalBefore": 10877,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 307,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 310
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 54% that "uxento" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 2.85% → 3.43% (+20%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "uxento" (6H). momentum contributed +0.48 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
73bf2178f3e1c359179705d28b45f3710e63152cc9aeb33ecb6e6b001972a1ccPrevious hash
99712354096ce9a685cf1630dca6177b9fe5343b70fb45807162ac77fa39376f