Ledger / Prediction #633 · narrative · 1H
Will "musk" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 49% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
78 of 1212 launches in the last hour referenced "musk" (52 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.94×.
Made2026-10-10 07:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 08:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 07:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.41209063713832367,
"momentum": -0.06300631505079024,
"diversity": -0.10000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.4872738296867323
},
"features": {
"term": "musk",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.06076388888888889,
"share60": 0.06471558120362737,
"total15": 287,
"total60": 1212,
"momentum": 0.9389375442321302,
"diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
"launches15": 17,
"launches60": 78,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 52
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 199,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9952283333333334,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9952283333333334
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4872738296867323
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 08:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.263
Log loss0.719
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.07033144704931285,
"shareRatio": 1.0957420536513587,
"totalAfter": 1237,
"shareBefore": 0.06414473684210527,
"totalBefore": 1216,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 87,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 78
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 49% that "musk" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 6.41% → 7.03% (+10%). PARTIAL.
— "musk" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
7338394a1494e172a605a1071bbef86be5e0c7f3d835edb361e3ee9752844c16Previous hash
9e77053f7ddb049590c68b952b47518c2373954f7a9d392a1154955b46e0a135