Ledger / Prediction #634 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 24% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

45 of 1212 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (31 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.32×.

Made2026-10-10 07:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 07:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3295836866004329,
      "momentum": -1.1270579286534326,
      "diversity": -0.07333333333333333
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.23670904224788625
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.012152777777777778,
    "share60": 0.03751030502885408,
    "total15": 287,
    "total60": 1212,
    "momentum": 0.32398504273504275,
    "diversity": 0.6888888888888889,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 45,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 199,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952283333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9952283333333334
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.23670904224788625
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 08:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.056

Log loss0.270

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.030719482619240096,
  "shareRatio": 0.831800671057537,
  "totalAfter": 1237,
  "shareBefore": 0.03700657894736842,
  "totalBefore": 1216,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 38,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 45
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 24% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.70% → 3.07% (-17%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). momentum contributed -1.13 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashaae4cec0f5b2b43aa6d8a0506e662741dd4b11e5d6d2411b634c0baf9cd4b213

Previous hash7338394a1494e172a605a1071bbef86be5e0c7f3d835edb361e3ee9752844c16