Ledger / Prediction #636 · narrative · 1H
Will "huge" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1212 launches in the last hour referenced "huge" (3 distinct creators, rank #194). Last 15m momentum 2.68×.
Made2026-10-10 07:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 08:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 07:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 0.9859063050650471,
"diversity": -0.18000000000000002
},
"rawProbability": 0.6238463275957298
},
"features": {
"term": "huge",
"rank60": 194,
"share15": 0.012152777777777778,
"share60": 0.004534212695795548,
"total15": 287,
"total60": 1212,
"momentum": 2.6802398989898992,
"diversity": 0.6,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 3
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 199,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9952283333333334,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9952283333333334
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6238463275957298
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 08:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.389
Log loss0.978
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.004042037186742118,
"shareRatio": 0.983037156704362,
"totalAfter": 1237,
"shareBefore": 0.004111842105263158,
"totalBefore": 1216,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 5,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 5
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 62% that "huge" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.41% → 0.40% (-2%). PARTIAL.
— "huge" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
707ee8a37320ba8755b6856932e6bea86cf6af2dd16834830e976245b44f75bbPrevious hash
077f925684adb1091434602383e6796f3880ba691aa91e3d48a803f26fddfe87