Will "memecoin" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

27 of 1212 launches in the last hour referenced "memecoin" (14 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 1.30×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2529598430355343,
      "momentum": 0.2637715876318494,
      "diversity": -0.2777777777777778
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4668655216419075
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "memecoin",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.029513888888888888,
    "share60": 0.02267106347897774,
    "total15": 287,
    "total60": 1212,
    "momentum": 1.301830808080808,
    "diversity": 0.5185185185185185,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 27,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 14
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 199,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952283333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992047222222222
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4668655216419075
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03092226186614769,
  "shareRatio": 3.43139920248117,
  "totalAfter": 9249,
  "shareBefore": 0.008977900552486187,
  "totalBefore": 10136,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 286,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 91
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity