Will "brand" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
10 of 1212 launches in the last hour referenced "brand" (8 distinct creators, rank #48). Last 15m momentum 2.61×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.1039720770839918,
"momentum": 0.9583183485462179,
"diversity": 0.06000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.5649177896113126
},
"features": {
"term": "brand",
"rank60": 48,
"share15": 0.022569444444444444,
"share60": 0.008656224237427864,
"total15": 287,
"total60": 1212,
"momentum": 2.607308201058201,
"diversity": 0.8,
"launches15": 6,
"launches60": 10,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 8
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 199,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9952283333333334,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998011805555556
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5649177896113126
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.002292409577177789,
"shareRatio": 0.9842044728102842,
"totalAfter": 47112,
"shareBefore": 0.002329763753780757,
"totalBefore": 48932,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 108,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 114
}Predicted 56% that "brand" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 0.23% (-2%). PARTIAL.
— "brand" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
4880b0224c911bcc3411452a987e29096d5ee924e968c940c1b849f4b683bc1ed17e16a77bc28a0aa479e5a91b86612520d7b5982006250992c8afd4a6c04f05