GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #644 · narrative · 24H

Will "brand" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

10 of 1212 launches in the last hour referenced "brand" (8 distinct creators, rank #48). Last 15m momentum 2.61×.

Made2026-10-10 07:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 07:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 07:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1039720770839918,
      "momentum": 0.9583183485462179,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5649177896113126
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "brand",
    "rank60": 48,
    "share15": 0.022569444444444444,
    "share60": 0.008656224237427864,
    "total15": 287,
    "total60": 1212,
    "momentum": 2.607308201058201,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 10,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 199,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952283333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998011805555556
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5649177896113126
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 07:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.319
Log loss0.832
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.002292409577177789,
  "shareRatio": 0.9842044728102842,
  "totalAfter": 47112,
  "shareBefore": 0.002329763753780757,
  "totalBefore": 48932,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 108,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 114
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 56% that "brand" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 0.23% (-2%). PARTIAL.

— "brand" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4880b0224c911bcc3411452a987e29096d5ee924e968c940c1b849f4b683bc1e
Previous hashd17e16a77bc28a0aa479e5a91b86612520d7b5982006250992c8afd4a6c04f05