Ledger / Prediction #649 · narrative · 1H
Will "digital" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
52 of 1180 launches in the last hour referenced "digital" (37 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.34×.
Made2026-10-10 08:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 09:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 07:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.351270870922099,
"momentum": 0.2912814665048292,
"diversity": -0.04615384615384612
},
"rawProbability": 0.5735618629125976
},
"features": {
"term": "digital",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.0594855305466238,
"share60": 0.04445385266723116,
"total15": 310,
"total60": 1180,
"momentum": 1.338141172867861,
"diversity": 0.7115384615384616,
"launches15": 18,
"launches60": 52,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 37
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 192,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9918269444444444,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918269444444444
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5735618629125976
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 09:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.329
Log loss0.852
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.013626040878122634,
"shareRatio": 0.31612996181831277,
"totalAfter": 1321,
"shareBefore": 0.04388185654008439,
"totalBefore": 1185,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 18,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 52
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 57% that "digital" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.39% → 1.36% (-69%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "digital" (1H). volume contributed +0.35 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
03f5515f6179a47a4d742d7c92c4eb5bfcc993b287dee8dd5456ddf1145283e8Previous hash
fe7ef2983168673d7076898f388312114954c943aeb764be9bf4e233b7f8a455