Ledger / Prediction #650 · narrative · 1H

Will "optimus" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

50 of 1180 launches in the last hour referenced "optimus" (28 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.17×.

Made2026-10-10 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 09:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34538776394910686,
      "momentum": 0.15319059166201496,
      "diversity": -0.22799999999999992
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49264511944749984
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "optimus",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.04983922829581994,
    "share60": 0.04276037256562235,
    "total15": 310,
    "total60": 1180,
    "momentum": 1.1655471013339276,
    "diversity": 0.56,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 50,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 28
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 192,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918269444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918269444444444
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49264511944749984
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 09:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.243

Log loss0.678

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001514004542013626,
  "shareRatio": 0.044412156798130646,
  "totalAfter": 1321,
  "shareBefore": 0.04219409282700422,
  "totalBefore": 1185,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 50
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 49% that "optimus" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.22% → 0.15% (-96%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "optimus" (1H). diversity contributed -0.23 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6c491b8a701d7c5e0a762d3d79a3c2e0631b02d7dfeecfb646aaf4208bbe8d6b

Previous hash03f5515f6179a47a4d742d7c92c4eb5bfcc993b287dee8dd5456ddf1145283e8