GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #652 · narrative · 1H

Will "nigger" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

12 of 1180 launches in the last hour referenced "nigger" (4 distinct creators, rank #49). Last 15m momentum 0.15×.

Made2026-10-10 08:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 09:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 07:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.13132031060308497,
      "momentum": -1.8845519208500727,
      "diversity": -0.5
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07220968266635854
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "nigger",
    "rank60": 49,
    "share15": 0.001607717041800643,
    "share60": 0.010584250635055038,
    "total15": 310,
    "total60": 1180,
    "momentum": 0.15189710610932475,
    "diversity": 0.3333333333333333,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 12,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 192,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918269444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918269444444444
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.07220968266635854
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 09:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.005
Log loss0.075
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.03588502269288956,
  "totalAfter": 1321,
  "shareBefore": 0.010126582278481013,
  "totalBefore": 1185,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 12
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that "nigger" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.01% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "nigger" (1H). momentum contributed -1.88 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2d5bec12bef8f773af0a0ff668ea27498be50a6b188cfd6e2be03372bf756e20
Previous hashb11023fef12fd9e5d83097d8b00b6f662c7887de2a1b80413c8fa8736a7b8e56