Ledger / Prediction #657 · narrative · 24H

Will "digital" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

52 of 1180 launches in the last hour referenced "digital" (37 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.34×.

Made2026-10-10 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.351270870922099,
      "momentum": 0.2912814665048292,
      "diversity": -0.04615384615384612
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49954981153078803
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "digital",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.0594855305466238,
    "share60": 0.04445385266723116,
    "total15": 310,
    "total60": 1180,
    "momentum": 1.338141172867861,
    "diversity": 0.7115384615384616,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 52,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 37
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 192,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918269444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996594560185185
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49954981153078803
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 08:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.250

Log loss0.692

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0029959204487506374,
  "shareRatio": 0.6673977441821304,
  "totalAfter": 47064,
  "shareBefore": 0.004494657486669254,
  "totalBefore": 48947,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 141,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 220
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "digital" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.45% → 0.30% (-33%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "digital" (24H). diversity contributed -0.05 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha321461d06035a10e401f3c996f093893375d281baf58c9b3a6fb94760e3012f

Previous hashfcf468eccae9a892e097ad5db6bcd10cc6f711eb76c7af1e4d895a4a84a1457b