Will "elon" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 37% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

39 of 1180 launches in the last hour referenced "elon" (19 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.62×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3081185600543319,
      "momentum": -0.4701745909873566,
      "diversity": -0.3153846153846154
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.36848531789229083
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "elon",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.02090032154340836,
    "share60": 0.03344623200677392,
    "total15": 310,
    "total60": 1180,
    "momentum": 0.6248931580446905,
    "diversity": 0.48717948717948717,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 39,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 192,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918269444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996594560185185
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.36848531789229083
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.009901410844807071,
  "shareRatio": 1.3961552941859834,
  "totalAfter": 47064,
  "shareBefore": 0.007089300672155597,
  "totalBefore": 48947,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 466,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 347
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity