Ledger / Prediction #663 · token · 1H

Will $OPTIMUS still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 24m ago. X link. Rides hot term "digital". Creator launched 4 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-10 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 09:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "43uxa4mJBjyG9LEmAnWhd2RaV6gVt9iBNtn1dMWJkQyD",
    "name": "Digital Optimus",
    "symbol": "OPTIMUS",
    "hotTerms": [
      "digital",
      "optimus"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 24,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 14,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3068.7791245652934,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 4
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 408,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 09:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.047

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T07:38:52.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3069.8974844068966,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 5530.315026532534,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3068.7791245652934,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6137.558249130587
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $OPTIMUS would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,070, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $OPTIMUS (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash92dbf66b2f6a63ff38cb9c3b5a99757685553e2246d73a2ee157dc815bab3805

Previous hashc72217d7dc402bdfcbd2372a22f750acd8014e0e095adc53a7c452b0f4e2e317