Will "crypto" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

18 of 1232 launches in the last hour referenced "crypto" (12 distinct creators, rank #15). Last 15m momentum 1.21×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.19214007681930967,
      "momentum": 0.19045005780912122,
      "diversity": -0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49564764359105895
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "crypto",
    "rank60": 15,
    "share15": 0.018151815181518153,
    "share60": 0.015004055150040552,
    "total15": 302,
    "total60": 1232,
    "momentum": 1.2097939523682097,
    "diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 18,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 163,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968825,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968825
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49564764359105895
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.016005121638924456,
  "shareRatio": 1.0917673911915753,
  "totalAfter": 1562,
  "shareBefore": 0.014551333872271624,
  "totalBefore": 1237,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 25,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 18
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity