Ledger / Prediction #671 · narrative · 6H

Will "dice" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 28% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

17 of 1232 launches in the last hour referenced "dice" (5 distinct creators, rank #16). Last 15m momentum 0.58×.

Made2026-10-10 08:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 14:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 08:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.18356631474331733,
      "momentum": -0.5424374514003382,
      "diversity": -0.5470588235294117
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.28208333160897164
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dice",
    "rank60": 16,
    "share15": 0.00825082508250825,
    "share60": 0.014193025141930252,
    "total15": 302,
    "total60": 1232,
    "momentum": 0.5813295615275813,
    "diversity": 0.29411764705882354,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 17,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 163,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968825,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994804166666666
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.28208333160897164
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 14:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.080

Log loss0.331

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0030084235860409147,
  "shareRatio": 0.8282115334591804,
  "totalAfter": 9972,
  "shareBefore": 0.003639477627916934,
  "totalBefore": 9342,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 30,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 34
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 28% that "dice" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 0.30% (-17%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "dice" (6H). diversity contributed -0.55 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc387461287e5f5682dfa9af78546314cb7608b29079220047ea37112f1e94e91

Previous hashdc284eb65b2a4fe43bfe0931d5ab493df9a9b882b2fded3a14291a531bb5237c