Will "director" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

22 of 1232 launches in the last hour referenced "director" (5 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.09×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22224068113863232,
      "momentum": -2.4031897921153447,
      "diversity": -0.6272727272727272
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.15392911775429527
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "director",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.0016501650165016502,
    "share60": 0.01824817518248175,
    "total15": 302,
    "total60": 1232,
    "momentum": 0.09042904290429044,
    "diversity": 0.22727272727272727,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 22,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 163,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968825,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998701041666667
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.15392911775429527
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.010964688163945888,
  "totalAfter": 46967,
  "shareBefore": 0.0009606933344234818,
  "totalBefore": 48923,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 47
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity