Ledger / Prediction #683 · narrative · 1H

Will "dice" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

33 of 1315 launches in the last hour referenced "dice" (7 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.54×.

Made2026-10-10 09:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 10:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 08:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28306044735485697,
      "momentum": 0.4299519414672659,
      "diversity": -0.6454545454545454
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4421496944914542
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dice",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.0391304347826087,
    "share60": 0.025455927051671733,
    "total15": 344,
    "total60": 1315,
    "momentum": 1.5371836469824791,
    "diversity": 0.21212121212121213,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 33,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 202,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932422222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9932422222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4421496944914542
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 10:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.195

Log loss0.584

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.012680811878908797,
  "totalAfter": 1555,
  "shareBefore": 0.02498107494322483,
  "totalBefore": 1321,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 33
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 44% that "dice" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.50% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "dice" (1H). diversity contributed -0.65 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0ce94dcedff61a36b5d826e7f2a2eac7ee28b1996c2f5639ecb6684cd1b7afdf

Previous hash7c2513d60184879cb5fa8c3b64e61678ae480cd8fb065812b1cc7ef4c509aa03