Ledger / Prediction #684 · narrative · 1H

Will "sobanimals" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 81% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

12 of 1315 launches in the last hour referenced "sobanimals" (12 distinct creators, rank #44). Last 15m momentum 3.81×.

Made2026-10-10 09:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 10:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 08:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.13132031060308497,
      "momentum": 1.338807694853903,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.8130768414510747
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sobanimals",
    "rank60": 44,
    "share15": 0.036231884057971016,
    "share60": 0.009498480243161094,
    "total15": 344,
    "total60": 1315,
    "momentum": 3.8144927536231887,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 12,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 202,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932422222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9932422222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.8130768414510747
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 10:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.661

Log loss1.677

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0019292604501607716,
  "shareRatio": 0.23789203084832905,
  "totalAfter": 1555,
  "shareBefore": 0.009084027252081756,
  "totalBefore": 1321,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 12
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 81% that "sobanimals" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.91% → 0.19% (-79%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "sobanimals" (1H). momentum contributed +1.34 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 81% and wrong on "sobanimals". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1b306e7d3ac0d511b8d3ab69cf6b025b29cfcd14d28a6c4cfbefffe83cdd003f

Previous hash0ce94dcedff61a36b5d826e7f2a2eac7ee28b1996c2f5639ecb6684cd1b7afdf