Ledger / Prediction #687 · narrative · 6H

Will "sobdog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

23 of 1315 launches in the last hour referenced "sobdog" (20 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.73×.

Made2026-10-10 09:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 15:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 08:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22890844552425738,
      "momentum": -0.3141153295199364,
      "diversity": 0.1434782608695652
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4355579087052611
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sobdog",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.013043478260869565,
    "share60": 0.017857142857142856,
    "total15": 344,
    "total60": 1315,
    "momentum": 0.7304347826086957,
    "diversity": 0.8695652173913043,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 23,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 202,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932422222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988737037037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4355579087052611
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 15:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.190

Log loss0.572

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0004729921483303377,
  "shareRatio": 0.18357407283761026,
  "totalAfter": 10571,
  "shareBefore": 0.002778704012448594,
  "totalBefore": 8997,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 25
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 44% that "sobdog" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.28% → 0.05% (-83%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "sobdog" (6H). momentum contributed -0.31 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash453a91ad4c1153c75e08fcb3b2ad3bbd2bbeac6c8ad9acd24260c33c7580c24d

Previous hashebf1d4fa7077ec1d482ec3a84ddc8c7a8120ce1962c99ea85f451fb5f979b73a