Ledger / Prediction #688 · narrative · 6H

Will "muskrats" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1315 launches in the last hour referenced "muskrats" (4 distinct creators, rank #203). Last 15m momentum 0.35×.

Made2026-10-10 09:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 15:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 08:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -1.0590875779444677,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2690670150453347
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "muskrats",
    "rank60": 203,
    "share15": 0.0014492753623188406,
    "share60": 0.004179331306990881,
    "total15": 344,
    "total60": 1315,
    "momentum": 0.34677206851119896,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 202,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932422222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988737037037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2690670150453347
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 15:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.072

Log loss0.313

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00009459842966606754,
  "shareRatio": 0.23212258796821794,
  "totalAfter": 10571,
  "shareBefore": 0.0005557408024897188,
  "totalBefore": 8997,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 27% that "muskrats" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.06% → 0.01% (-83%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "muskrats" (6H). momentum contributed -1.06 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash142cddbbbf11046a79d580bf27de19791dcf64f1f0e46fed81d55bca34f929a6

Previous hash453a91ad4c1153c75e08fcb3b2ad3bbd2bbeac6c8ad9acd24260c33c7580c24d