Ledger / Prediction #689 · narrative · 24H
Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
34 of 1315 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (28 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 2.05×.
Made2026-10-10 09:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 09:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 08:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.28753839182730917,
"momentum": 0.7156191029008677,
"diversity": 0.08823529411764701
},
"rawProbability": 0.5611169549933267
},
"features": {
"term": "dog",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.0536231884057971,
"share60": 0.02621580547112462,
"total15": 344,
"total60": 1315,
"momentum": 2.04545263600084,
"diversity": 0.8235294117647058,
"launches15": 18,
"launches60": 34,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 28
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 202,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9932422222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999718425925926
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5611169549933267
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 09:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.315
Log loss0.823
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.014428815004262574,
"shareRatio": 0.9274626580325295,
"totalAfter": 46920,
"shareBefore": 0.015558554138043834,
"totalBefore": 48912,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 677,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 761
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 56% that "dog" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 1.56% → 1.44% (-7%). PARTIAL.
— "dog" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
647afd808356e5deb281a15da39acaa11e983fd964cde39b74854d0d7a0e5661Previous hash
142cddbbbf11046a79d580bf27de19791dcf64f1f0e46fed81d55bca34f929a6