Ledger / Prediction #696 · token · 6H

Will $PEBBLE still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 19m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "agent".

Made2026-10-10 09:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 15:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 08:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14874997896424488
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "341qEUx4DkVe22Zq8SV6L7K44eD8BXAg9TjrWFXgwN2H",
    "name": "Pebble Agent",
    "symbol": "PEBBLE",
    "hotTerms": [
      "agent"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 19,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 59,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3073.8528384642077,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 475,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.14874997896424488
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 15:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.022

Log loss0.161

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T08:41:32.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3069.8657081451993,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3073.8528384642077,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3073.8528384642077,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6147.705676928415
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 15% that $PEBBLE would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,070, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $PEBBLE (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe4f954bd6b8e8e84c6af47ddeaacbc9ae5705254d1b40d0001d0ee514f01bac3

Previous hashe06290489dd08b0f942665866c11aaf68b25ce38d5678072ec6dddad53cd97be