Will "viral" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 22% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

42 of 1559 launches in the last hour referenced "viral" (11 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.51×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3192347558773902,
      "momentum": -0.6762511641355535,
      "diversity": -0.5857142857142856
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.22396102661369147
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "viral",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.013853904282115869,
    "share60": 0.027243589743589744,
    "total15": 396,
    "total60": 1559,
    "momentum": 0.5085197807082531,
    "diversity": 0.2619047619047619,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 42,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 223,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982697222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982697222222222
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.22396102661369147
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0064808813998703824,
  "shareRatio": 0.2500990551661079,
  "totalAfter": 1543,
  "shareBefore": 0.026888604353393086,
  "totalBefore": 1562,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 10,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 42
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity