Ledger / Prediction #703 · narrative · 6H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
33 of 1559 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (22 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.70×.
Made2026-10-10 09:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 15:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 09:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.28306044735485697,
"momentum": 0.5311080301519002,
"diversity": -0.10000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.5498136845974109
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 7,
"share15": 0.036523929471032744,
"share60": 0.021474358974358974,
"total15": 396,
"total60": 1559,
"momentum": 1.7008158201436143,
"diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
"launches15": 14,
"launches60": 33,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 22
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 223,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9982697222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997116203703704
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5498136845974109
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 15:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.203
Log loss0.598
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.03143115942028985,
"shareRatio": 2.2080335077605,
"totalAfter": 11040,
"shareBefore": 0.014197602699871989,
"totalBefore": 8593,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 347,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 122
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 55% that "inu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.42% → 3.14% (+121%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (6H). momentum contributed +0.53 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
81f8da1edc2f40c6441bd6793cbed02e24220476276632f141fc161d74c5bdffPrevious hash
b1706eaf01bd72188fa480e32e55188de81f8bc623075f178625913057b9b000