GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #703 · narrative · 6H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

33 of 1559 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (22 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.70×.

Made2026-10-10 09:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 15:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 09:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28306044735485697,
      "momentum": 0.5311080301519002,
      "diversity": -0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5498136845974109
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.036523929471032744,
    "share60": 0.021474358974358974,
    "total15": 396,
    "total60": 1559,
    "momentum": 1.7008158201436143,
    "diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 33,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 22
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 223,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982697222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997116203703704
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5498136845974109
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 15:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.203
Log loss0.598
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.03143115942028985,
  "shareRatio": 2.2080335077605,
  "totalAfter": 11040,
  "shareBefore": 0.014197602699871989,
  "totalBefore": 8593,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 347,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 122
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 55% that "inu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.42% → 3.14% (+121%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (6H). momentum contributed +0.53 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash81f8da1edc2f40c6441bd6793cbed02e24220476276632f141fc161d74c5bdff
Previous hashb1706eaf01bd72188fa480e32e55188de81f8bc623075f178625913057b9b000