Will "sobcat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 29% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

42 of 1559 launches in the last hour referenced "sobcat" (10 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.42×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3192347558773902,
      "momentum": -0.8769218595977049,
      "diversity": -0.6142857142857142
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.29193878560727426
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sobcat",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.011335012594458438,
    "share60": 0.027243589743589744,
    "total15": 396,
    "total60": 1559,
    "momentum": 0.4160616387612979,
    "diversity": 0.23809523809523808,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 42,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 223,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982697222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999279050925926
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.29193878560727426
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.000042842148105306,
  "shareRatio": 0.06192195839864521,
  "totalAfter": 46683,
  "shareBefore": 0.0008546660697570307,
  "totalBefore": 49142,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 42
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity