Ledger / Prediction #712 · token · 6H

Will $PUMP still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 2% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 10m ago. No social links. No hot term. Creator launched 13 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-10 09:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 15:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 09:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.02310254327777607
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "EHSDVNHTcvA6VswKqsapYzKAxD8qGooiUEcPQ1Ppump",
    "name": "PUMP",
    "symbol": "PUMP",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 10,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 1326.0194631595527,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 13
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 598,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.02310254327777607
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 15:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeSUSTAINED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.954

Log loss3.768

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": true,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T09:29:08.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 70.43447182598585,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 5085.706755808381,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 1326.0194631595527,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5000
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 2% that $PUMP would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: SUSTAINED (market cap $70, graduated). INCORRECT.

— serialCreator misled on $PUMP (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 98% and wrong on $PUMP. Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb0a460674ab52a4ad80ed1eaf76933206c53ee6626679606bcfc37901cf28d9d

Previous hash3c2238f4e334ec0894980201672ab84fa3212cdcfa3d5bf41d61f98eeb51f959