Ledger / Prediction #714 · narrative · 1H

Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 16% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

75 of 1547 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (24 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.29×.

Made2026-10-10 10:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 09:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4062075301653315,
      "momentum": -1.2279088441546655,
      "diversity": -0.516
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.16277808790219112
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.014285714285714285,
    "share60": 0.048772609819121446,
    "total15": 384,
    "total60": 1547,
    "momentum": 0.2929044465468307,
    "diversity": 0.32,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 75,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 213,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943466666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9943466666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.16277808790219112
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 11:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.027

Log loss0.178

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.013681592039800995,
  "shareRatio": 0.2881967739412823,
  "totalAfter": 1608,
  "shareBefore": 0.04823151125401929,
  "totalBefore": 1555,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 22,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 75
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 16% that "dog" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.82% → 1.37% (-72%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "dog" (1H). momentum contributed -1.23 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7a242723f01004b58f2003a4daead51860b5a366094a4d6e4feafd8948dd85fe

Previous hash3885c1dce9232b34b742a0ce4936551c937dfd81e8dfd4830368980960ae7dbe